(The Center Square) – The Washington State Democratic Party could be locked out of having a candidate on the November general election ballot for state commissioner of public lands.
The commissioner of public lands leads Washington state’s wildfire fighting force and manages nearly 6 million acres of public lands – from coastal waters and aquatic reserves, to working forests and farms, commercial developments, and recreation areas.
Current Commissioner Hilary Franz announced she would not seek reelection last year after initially running for governor, then dropping that bid to run for Congress in the 6th Congressional District.
The Northwest Progressive Institute’s late July election survey revealed that having five Democrats in the running may have splintered the party to the point the two Republicans in the race could come out on top.
“It is a possible scenario, but we don’t know what is probable because of so many undecided voters in the poll,” said Andrew Villeneuve, NPI founder and executive director.
Nearly half, 48%, of the 581 likely voters questioned by Public Policy Polling July 23 and July 24 on behalf of NPI reported that they are not sure who they are voting for in the race.
“If the undecided voters, many of whom are Democrats, break for one candidate, then we won’t see a lockout,” Villeneuve told The Center Square. “But if the voters are split between three or more of the Democrats, then there’s a real possibility of a lockout.”
According to NPI’s poll, 18% said they were voting for former Republican U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, and 12% said they were voting for the other Republican, Sue Kuehl Pedersen, who has the endorsement of the Washington State Republican Party.
The five Democratic candidates for lands commissioner were all in the single digits.
“It’s a lot of choices for people to sort through, and when you give people more choices, it’s harder for them to make a decision,” Villeneuve explained.
King County Council Chair Dave Upthegrove came out on top among Democrats in the poll, with 6% of respondents saying they will vote for him.
Democratic State Sen. Kevin Van De Wege and Redmond City Councilmember Jeralee Anderson each got 5% support.
Department of Natural Resources tribal liaison Patrick DePoe was behind them with 4%, and 3% of respondents said they planned to vote for Allen Lebovitz, who also works for DNR.
“How those undecided voters break is going to be critical,” Villeneuve noted.
In the poll, 58% of Democratic voters said they were not sure who they would be voting for, along with 52% of independent voters being unsure.
Among Republican voters, 27% said they were unsure if they would vote for Beutler or Pedersen.
NPI does not endorse candidates but has come out strongly in opposition to the top-two primary system, which advances the top-two vote getters, regardless of party.
The survey blended automated phone calls to landlines (32%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (68%).
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, with a confidence interval of at least 95%, according to NPI.
