The Euro 2020 group stage is almost over, with 16 of the 24 nations going through to the knockout rounds.
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The top two teams in each group qualify, along with the best four of the six third-placed teams.
The first tie-breaker for teams level on points is head-to-head record, followed by overall goal difference.
Qualified for round of 16: Austria, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Wales
Eliminated: North Macedonia, Turkey
Here’s what every team needs to go through with one round of games remaining.
At Euro 2016, two teams advanced in third with three points, and it’s highly likely that four points will be enough to secure one of the four slots for the best third-placed teams this time.
Switzerland 4 points, GD -1
Ukraine 3 points, GD -1
Switzerland will qualify on Monday evening if Belgium beat Finland and/or Denmark beat Russia.
– JUMP TO: How third-placed teams fill out the bracket
June 21: Finland vs Belgium, Russia vs. Denmark (9 p.m. CET, 3 p.m. ET)
– Are through and need a point against Finland to secure top spot.
– Will finish second if they lose and Russia lose or draw (Finland top the group).
– If Belgium lose by one or two goals and Russia win, Belgium will win the group with Finland in second and Russia in third.
– Belgium also finish second if they lose by 3-5 goals and Russia win (Finland top, Russia third).
– Unlikely scenario whereby Belgium can finish third, which would require them to lose by at least six goals and Russia to win (Finland 1st, Russia second).
– Victory against Denmark will guarantee progress but they cannot top the group.
– If Finland and Russia win, Russia can only finish second if Finland beat Belgium by 6+ goals.
– A draw will take them through if Finland fail to beat Belgium.
– Russia can only qualify with a defeat if Finland lose too. Cannot qualify if they lose by more than one goal.
– If Russia lose by any one-goal scoreline other than 1-0 and Finland lose they will finish third and have to hope three points is enough.
– Qualify if they beat Belgium, and would top the group if Russia fail to win OR if Russia win and Finland win by at least three goals.
– A draw would be enough to go through if Russia lose, though four points should still be good enough in third if Russia win or draw.
– If Finland lose and Russia win or draw, Finland must wait to see if three points is enough in third. See below for additional scenarios if Finland lose, in addition to those in the Russia section.
– Must beat Russia to stand any chance of progressing
– If Denmark win and Finland win or draw, the Danes will finish third and will have to hope three points is enough to go through.
If Denmark win and Finland lose, three teams will be locked on three points. Positions 2-4 will be decided on results between the three teams. If Denmark win by any scoreline other than 1-0 and Finland lose, Denmark will finish second in the group. But the exact scoreline would define the other positions:
– If Denmark win by any one-goal scoreline other than 1-0, Denmark will be second, Russia third and Finland bottom.
– If Denmark win by more than one goal, Denmark will be second, Finland third and Russia bottom.
If Denmark win 1-0 and Finland lose, the group will be decided on overall goal difference and goals scored, and Denmark can finish no lower than third.
– If Denmark win 1-0 and Finland lose 1-0 or by two goals, Denmark will finish second, Finland third and Russia fourth.
– If Denmark win 1-0 and Finland lose 2-1, goal difference and goals scored will be identical between the Denmark and Finland and positions 2-3 will be decided on disciplinary points, with Russia in fourth. If disciplinary points are level, the overall ranking in Euro 2020 qualifying will be used to decide 2nd and 3rd: Denmark 15th, Finland 20th.
– If Denmark win 1-0 and Finland lose by any other one-goal scoreline (2-3, 3-4 etc) it’s Finland second, Denmark third and Russia fourth.
– If Denmark win 1-0 and Finland lose 3-0, third place between Finland and Russia will be decided first on disciplinary record and then on Euro 2020 qualifying rank: Russia 12th, Finland 20th. Any other three-goal defeat, and Finland finish third with Russia fourth.
– If Denmark win 1-0 and Finland lose by 4+ goals, Denmark will be second, Russia third and Finland fourth.
June 22: Croatia vs. Scotland, Czech Republic vs. England (9 p.m. CET, 3 p.m. ET)
– Need a point to qualify which will secure top spot in the group.
– Can only finish third in the group if they lose and Croatia win by enough to finish above them on overall goal difference, but four points is very likely to go through in third.
– Need a point to be sure of going through, but must win to top the group.
– Will qualify with a defeat if Scotland draw or lose, or if Scotland win but don’t better England’s goal difference, and even then four points should be enough to qualify in third.
– Only hope of finishing second is if they beat Scotland, Czech Republic lose and they also finish with better group goal difference. But a win is very likely to take them through in third on four points anyway.
– Cannot qualify with a draw.
– Must win and England must lose, and Scotland better the overall goal difference, to take second. Regardless, a win over Croatia is likely to take them through in third on four points.
June 23: Slovakia vs. Spain, Sweden vs. Poland (6 p.m. CET, midday ET)
– Need a point against Poland to secure qualification in the top two and will win the group if they beat Poland or both games are drawn.
– The only way Sweden will definitely go through in second with a defeat is if they lose by any one-goal scoreline other than 1-0 and Slovakia-Spain is a draw.
– If Sweden lose 1-0 or by more than one goal and Slovakia-Spain is a draw, Sweden will finish third on four points. See the Poland section for other detailed permutations.
– Four points should be enough to go through in third if they lose, which they should know before they play, and they cannot finish bottom.
– Must beat Spain to be be sure of qualifying, and they would top the group with a win if Sweden draw or lose.
– A point is also enough for top two if Sweden win or draw, or if Poland win 1-0 or by 2+ goals (though four points should take them through in third). See the Poland section for other detailed permutations.
– If they lose, they have a chance of going through in third with three points as long as Poland do not win.
– Have to beat Slovakia to guarantee qualification, and that will be as group winners if Sweden lose (could finish also top on goal difference if Sweden draw).
– If Spain draw, their only hope is Poland fail to win and they go through as a best third-placed team on three points.
– Cannot qualify if they lose.
– Must win, and guaranteed to finish second if they do and Slovakia-Spain isn’t a draw.
If Poland win and Slovakia-Spain is a draw:
– If Poland win by any scoreline other than 1-0, that will send them through as group winners in the three-team head-to-head mini-league.
– If Poland win 1-0, Slovakia win the group, Poland are second and Sweden third.
– If Poland win 2-1, Poland win the group, Sweden are second and Slovakia third.
– If Poland win by any other one-goal scoreline (eg. 2-1, 3-2), Poland win the group, Sweden are second and Slovakia are third.
– If Poland win by more than one goal, Poland win the group, Slovakia are second and Sweden are third.
June 23: Germany vs. Hungary, Portugal vs. France (9 p.m. CET, 3 p.m. ET)
– A win against Portugal guarantees top spot, but they only need a point to qualify.
– Will also qualify regardless of their own result if Germany-Hungary is a draw.
– They will also finish top with a point if Germany don’t win.
– If France lose and Hungary win, France could finish first depending on overall group goal difference between the two sides.
– Four points should be enough for a best-third place if they are beaten and Germany win.
– Will be guaranteed to qualify if they beat Hungary.
– Can finish top if they win and France draw or lose.
– A point will also be enough for top two as long as Portugal do not win. They will finish third with a point if Portugal win, but four points should take them through.
– Germany’s only hope of going through with a loss is if France beat Portugal and three points is enough in third.
– Victory will guarantee they are through, and as group winners if Germany draw or lose.
– A draw will also be enough as long as Germany lose.
– If Portugal lose, to finish on three points, they need to hope Hungary do not win so they finish third. Then it would likely come down to goal difference for a best third-placed slot, so a heavy loss to France could see them eliminated. With Group F last to complete, Portugal (and France) will know exactly what’s at stake to go through, or be knocked out, in third.
– Must beat Germany to have any chance of qualifying, and they will be through in second if Portugal lose.
– If Portugal win, Hungary would need to finish with better goal difference than France for second with both countries on four points.
– They cannot make the top two if they win and France-Portugal is a draw, but four points should be enough to go through in third.
– Cannot go through with a draw or loss.
How 3rd placed teams fill out the bracket
Though this grid may seem quite complicated, it is actually very straightforward.
The first part refers to the groups which supply the four third-placed teams.
The second part shows the fixtures. 1B, 1C, 1E and 1F refers to the winners of Groups B, C, E and F. 3A, 3B, 3C, 3D, 3E and 3F indicates the third-placed team from the group.
Once we know which four groups produce the four best third-placed teams, we can find that line on the grid and see the fixtures it creates.
Therefore, if the third-placed teams come from groups A, B, C and D, we can seen that the winners of Group B will play the third-placed nation from Group A.
As third-placed teams either guarantee qualification or are definitely eliminated, we can remove lines from this grid.
Switzerland are confirmed as third in group A, and Netherlands as the winners of Group C.
A B C D = 1B vs. Switzerland, Netherlands vs. 3D, 1E vs. 3B, 1F vs. Ukraine
A B C E = 1B vs. Switzerland, Netherlands vs. 3E, 1E vs. 3B, 1F vs. Ukraine
A B C F = 1B vs. Switzerland, Netherlands vs. 3F, 1E vs. 3B, 1F vs. Ukraine
A B D E = 1B vs. 3D, Netherlands vs. 3E, 1E vs. Switzerland, 1F vs. 3B
A B D F = 1B vs. 3D, Netherlands vs. 3F, 1E vs. Switzerland, 1F vs. 3B
A B E F = 1B vs. 3E, Netherlands vs. 3F, 1E vs. 3B, 1F vs. Switzerland
A C D E = 1B vs. 3E, Netherlands vs. 3D, 1E vs. Ukraine, 1F vs. Switzerland
A C D F = 1B vs. 3F, Netherlands vs. 3D, 1E vs. Ukraine, 1F vs. Switzerland
A C E F = 1B vs. 3E, Netherlands vs. 3F, 1E vs. Ukraine, 1F vs. Switzerland
A D E F = 1B vs. 3E, Netherlands vs. 3F, 1E vs. 3D, 1F vs. Switzerland
B C D E = 1B vs. 3E, Netherlands vs. 3D, 1E vs. 3B, 1F vs. Ukraine
B C D F = 1B vs. 3F, Netherlands vs. 3D, 1E vs. Ukraine, 1F vs. 3B
B C E F = 1B vs. 3F, Netherlands vs. 3E, 1E vs. Ukraine, 1F vs. 3B
B D E F = 1B vs. 3F, Netherlands vs. 3E, 1E vs. 3D, 1F vs. 3B
C D E F = 1B vs. 3F, Netherlands vs. 3E, 1E vs. 3D, 1F vs. Ukraine
BRACKET – ROUND OF 16
Saturday, June 26
37- Wales vs. Runners-up Group B (Amsterdam; noon ET, 6 p.m. CET) – ESPN
38 – Italy vs. Austria (London; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ABC
Sunday, June 27
39 – Netherlands vs. 3rd in D/E/F (Budapest; noon ET, 6 p.m. CET) – ESPN
40 – Winners Group B vs. 3rd in A/D/E/F (Seville; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ABC
Monday, June 28
41 – Runners-up Group D vs. Runners-up Group E (Copenhagen; noon ET, 6 p.m. CET) – ESPN
42 – Winners Group F vs. 3rd in A/B/C (Bucharest; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ESPN
Tuesday, June 29
43 – Winners Group D vs. Runners-up Group F (London; noon ET, 6 p.m. CET) – ESPN
44 – Winners Group E vs. 3rd in A/B/C/D (Glasgow; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ESPN
BRACKET – QUARTERFINALS
Friday, July 2
45 – Winners Match 41 vs. Winners Match 42 (Saint Petersburg; noon ET, 6 p.m. CET) – ESPN
46 – Winners Match 37 vs. Winners Match 39 (Munich; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ESPN
Saturday, July 3
47 – Winners Match 38 vs. Winners Match 40 (Baku; noon ET, 6 p.m. CET) – ESPN
48 – Winners Match 43 vs. Winners Match 44 (Rome; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ABC
BRACKET – SEMIFINALS
Tuesday, July 6
49 – Winners Match 45 vs. Winners Match 46 (London; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ESPN
Wednesday, July 7
50 – Winners Match 47 vs. Winners Match 48 (London; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ESPN
BRACKET – FINAL
Sunday, July 11
Winners Match 49 vs. Winners Match 50 (London; 3 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CET) – ESPN