California population grew due to undercounted mass migration

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the state’s population estimates have been heavily revised upward, with data showing sustained outmigration by Americans was offset by large amounts of international migration.

“People from across the nation and the globe are coming to the Golden State to pursue the California Dream, where rights are protected and people are respected,” said Newsom in a statement.

California’ Department of Finance Thursday reported that 277,468 more immigrants came between 2021 and 2024 than previously estimated, resulting in greater net population growth in 2024 and a swing from negative to positive reported population growth in 2023.

The state estimates California now has 39,529,000 residents, up 108,000 from the year prior.

DOF’s outmigration report from December 2024 shows that net domestic outmigration slowed from a loss of 249,308 Californians in 2023 to 197,016 in 2024.

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Natural increase — subtracting deaths from births — remained largely steady, rising from 105,550 in 2023 to 114,805 in 2024.

Two hundred and forty California cities lost residents, while 241 gained residents, and one city — Morro Bay — had no change in population.

Of California’s 10 most populous counties, only Contra Costa in the East Bay area lost population in 2024, losing a net 24 residents.

Earlier Census reports have found that those coming to California tend to be much poorer than those coming in, with outmigration in from just mid-2021 to mid-2022 resulting in a net loss of $24 billion in personal income. This suggests population growth may not necessarily translate to tax revenue growth, which could put further strain on the state budget.

In November 2024, California’s state-funded Legislative Analyst’s Office reported the state has “no capacity” for new spending and would face annual residents rising to $30 billion in 2026 as spending growth outpaces weak revenue growth.

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