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Poll: Nearly a third of voters lack confidence in 2024 presidential election

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With primary season under way, nearly one third of registered voters think the 2024 presidential election will not be conducted fairly or accurately, according to a new poll.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights shows that a majority of Americans have faith that votes will be counted correctly and the true winner of the contest will assume the role of the presidency.

The survey asked respondents, “How confident are you that the vote will be counted correctly in 2024?” and “How confident are you that the true winner of the 2024 election will be sworn in as president?”

Among likely voters, 37% indicated they were “very confident” that votes would be counted accurately in the November election and an additional 28% were “somewhat confident.” In contrast, 19% of respondents answered they were “not very confident” and 13% said they were “not confident at all” that the votes will be tallied correctly. Four percent of likely voters indicated they are “not sure.”

Likely Republican voters were evenly split and had the most doubts, with 48% saying they were either very or somewhat confident but 48% also saying they were not very confident or not confident at all and 4% unsure.

Most likely voters also say that the true victor of the election will become the next president. Among likely voters, 38% indicate they are “very confident” and an additional 30% say they are “somewhat confident” that the “true winner” of the election will become the next president.

Conversely, 17% are “not very confident” and 9% are “not confident at all” that the actual winner of the election will serve as president. Seven percent of respondents say they are “not sure.”

Along party lines, Republicans have less trust in the upcoming election outcome than Democrats.While 52% of likely Republican voters trust that the true winner of the election will be sworn in as president, 40% do not while 8% are unsure. Among Democrats, 80% trust that the true winner of the election will be sworn in as president while just 12% do not, with 7% unsure.

Opinions on the upcoming election are divided along levels of educational attainment, with 67% of college degree-holders and 60% of non-degree holders expressing confidence the votes will be counted accurately. Seventy-two percent of college graduates and 61% of non-degree holders believe the ‘true winner’ of the election will be ‘sworn in’ as the next president.

These results come amid mounting concerns over voter trust in the legitimacy of the American election processes. A June Monmouth poll found that 3-in-10 Americans believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 election solely due to voter fraud.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights and surveyed 2,573 Americans from Jan. 2-4, including about an even number of Republicans and Democrats as well as 266 “true independents,” which are independents who indicated they do not lean toward either party. The poll has a margin of error of about 2%.

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