(The Center Square) — Though Hillary Clinton won Virginia handily in 2016 and President Joe Biden routed former President Donald Trump in 2020 by more than 10%, a new poll by Roanoke College suggests Biden’s victory in the commonwealth may not be so secure come November.
Based on the 711 “likely voters” interviewed by the college’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, Biden and Trump are neck-and-neck for November, 42%-42%. However, with other candidates included, Biden holds a two-point lead (40%-38%).
Virginia was considered a battleground in 2016 but not in 2020. The deep purple state is also missing from the short list of seven swing states for 2024, according to recent popular analysis.
Forty-four percent of those Roanoke surveyed chose the economy as the issue most important to them in the upcoming election. Immigration and “something else” were next, with 14% each, followed by abortion at 13%.
Respondents’ impressions of Biden and Trump also fared nearly the same – only 36% had a favorable impression of Biden, with 58% unfavorable. The same percentage leaned toward a positive view of Trump (36%), though 1% less were unfavorable.
The Institute ranks 31st on national polling organization, 538 pollster index, which ranks nearly 300 polling organizations. It garnered 2.6 of a possible three stars. Only three polls – the New York Times/Siena College, ABC News/The Washington Post and Marquette University Law School – earned a three-star rating.
The margin of error for this poll is 4.24%.
