(The Center Square) – When Florida voters go to the polls on Tuesday, two ballot initiatives and a U.S. Senate race represent the marquee contests.
Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is locked in a relatively tight race with Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and is running behind poll numbers for former President Donald Trump in his race against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
The two ballot initiatives involving recreational marijuana and abortion rights are either polling or are near 60% of the vote, which would be needed for them to be added to the state’s constitution. Supporters for those two amendments have raised $256 million combined.
Two polls released in the last weeks before the election show a 4-point lead for Scott, who narrowly defeated former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson 50.1%-49.9% in 2018.
According to aggregator RealClear Polling, Scott is leading in all of the polls, with margins ranging from a 9-point lead (New York Times/Siena College poll on Oct. 4) to a 2-point lead (Marist poll on Oct. 7).
The latest three polls, one from Florida Atlantic University/Main Street USA, one from Emerson College and another from the University of North Florida, show a tight race.
Both Florida Atlantic and Emerson polls show Scott with a 4-point advantage, with North Florida’s poll showing an even tighter race with a 3% lead. Trump’s support in all three polls is north of 52%.
“At just 3 percentage points, Rick Scott’s lead is significantly narrower than Trump’s, similar to what we saw back in July,” said Michael Binder, the director of faculty at the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab in a release. “Much like the rest of the country, Trump is running notably ahead of Senate candidates in the same state.”
Senate seats are becoming expensive, as data from the Federal Election Commission shows nearly $1.54 billion has been raised by candidates this year.
Scott is no exception. The former Florida governor has raised $40.4 million and spent about $39.8 million in the runup to Election Day.
Powell isn’t far behind, raising $31.4 million while spending $29.7 million.
Polling also shows Amendment 3 having broad support at 60%, enough to ensure its passage. North Florida’s poll has support for recreational cannabis at 66%, while the Emerson polls have support at 60%.
Amendment 4 doesn’t fare as well in the polling, but it is still close. The Florida Atlantic poll has the abortion rights amendment at 58% support with 32% opposed and 10% undecided. North Florida has support at 60%, while Emerson has it at 53%.
Both are well-funded enterprises, with supporters of Amendment 3 having raised $148 million, most of it ($141.8 million) coming from cannabis retailer Trulieve, according to data from the secretary of state’s office.
Floridians Protecting Freedom put Amendment 4 on the ballot and they’ve received $108 million in contributions, according to state data, with most of those funds coming from the Service Employees International Union and the American Civil Liberties Union.
