It’s a big month for President Donald Trump’s agenda as the budget reconciliation bill that unlocks much of his campaign promises works its way through a divided U.S. Senate.
Internal fights in the Senate GOP conference between fiscal hardliners and moderates pose a steep challenge for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., as he seeks to have the finalized package on the president’s desk by July 4.
The budget reconciliation process allows lawmakers to bypass the Senate filibuster. But with a razor-thin Republican majority in the Senate, Thune can only afford to lose three votes in his party. This requires Thune to meet the stiff demands of 51 Republicans whose requests often contradict one another.
Meanwhile, no fewer than 20 Senate Republicans are up for reelection in the midterms next year, meaning almost half of the Republican conference have a greater incentive to hold the line.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is one senator who will be hyper-focused on the interests of her state as she builds her 2026 campaign. Collins has voiced concerns about Medicaid changes in the GOP’s bill, specifically in how they could affect children, people with disabilities, seniors and low-income families.
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-MO, has also expressed wariness over potential cuts to healthcare access. Hawley called it “morally wrong and politically suicidal.”
As The Center Square reported, the bill’s cost-cutting changes to Medicaid will render at least 7.7 million current Medicaid recipients – including 1.4 million people without verified citizenship status – ineligible for coverage by 2034. But given the Biden-era 20% spending increase on Medicaid, total program spending will still grow by at least 3% a year for the next decade.
The opponents of Medicaid cuts clash directly with budget hawks in the GOP conference who claim the proposed budget package doesn’t go far enough in its spending cuts.
Central to this argument is Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who is discarding any loyalties to Trump in his effort to push for deeper spending cuts in the bill. Others include Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Mike Lee, R-Utah.
Senate Democrats are ramping up their tactics in an effort to sink the GOP bill. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., sent a letter to fellow Democrats on Sunday renaming the budget package the “One Ugly Bill” and vowing to “use every tool at our disposal in this battle.”
Democrats also plan to oppose Thune’s decision to operate under the current policy baseline, which would essentially make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent.
Republicans argue that the final decision is up to Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., while Democrats say it’s up to a ruling by the Senate parliamentarian.
