(The Center Square) – Florida’s economy and population are projected to continue growing in 2026, but not at the rate they did immediately following the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new report.
The state is expected to add 2.4 million people by 2034 as it returns to more “normal” pre-pandemic growth rates, according to Florida TaxWatch’s Q3 2025 Economic Forecast. Migration is expected to slow from 922 people per day to 702 people per day by 2034, the nonprofit research institute said.
Florida’s employment is also expected to see more modest growth, rising from 10 million jobs to about 10.8 million over the next decade.
Though the state’s $1.76 trillion economy has enjoyed a “strong global presence” in tourism, trade and real estate development, its gross domestic product growth rate is expected to cool from a projected 2.3% this year to around 1.9% by 2034, the report said.
Meanwhile, the state’s unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4% in 2025 to 4.5% between 2026 and 2027 before falling to around 4.1% by 2034, the report said.
Last summer, there were more unemployed people than job openings. The report found 0.9 job openings for every unemployed worker last July.
Floridians’ incomes are expected to increase before tapering off over the next 10 years as the rate of inflation is also anticipated to rise. The report estimates income growth will rise to 5.1% by 2028, then dip to 4.9% by 2034.
“The spending capabilities of Floridians will increase, but at a slower rate in the coming years. The difference in inflation and income growth will be reflected in the purchasing power of Floridians,” wrote Jui Shah, a research economist with Florida TaxWatch.
The state’s tourism industry is expected to strengthen over the next few years before leveling off, demonstrating a return to pre-pandemic rates, the report said.
Florida welcomed a record 143 million visitors in 2024 who spent $134.9 billion, directly supporting 1.8 million jobs, according to the report. However, 2026 is expected to see a shift, with a slowed 0.8% growth rate.
“Florida is still growing but the forecast expects the state to shift from the post-pandemic sprint to a more sustainable jog, shaped by easing (but still present) economic uncertainty and a cooling pace of in-migration,” said Shah.
