(The Center Square) – Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley 50%-42% in polling for North Carolina’s election of a U.S. senator in November, a High Point University poll says.
In another closely watched race, Democratic incumbent Justice Anita Earls and Republican state Rep. Sarah Stevens, R-Surry, are deadlocked 43%-43% in the one available seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court.
The sampling in conjunction with YouGov released Wednesday was conducted March 26-April 6 of 800 likely voters and offers a credibility interval of 4.1%.
The poll also released results of “generic ballots” for the U.S. House of Representatives, North Carolina House of Representatives and the North Carolina Senate. Generic ballot means there are no names, individual elected office history or campaign promises for respondents to judge.
The late Kay Hagan in 2008 was the last Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state. The last Democrats to win midterms were John Edwards in 1998 and Terry Sanford in 1986.
Republicans are 5-0 in Senate elections since Hagan’s triumph.
The campaigns are expected to generate a Senate spending record between $750 million and $1 billion. For context, that’s the neighborhood Major League Baseball’s Dodgers and Mets (combined payroll $788.5 million) are spending to try to win this year’s World Series.
In the Supreme Court race, Earls is trying to keep a seat Republicans would love to flip for a 6-1 advantage on the bench. Three seats will be on the ballot in 2028; this means if Earls loses in November, Democrats would have to sweep in two years to regain a majority.
Since Earls’ win in 2018 gave Democrats a majority, Republicans won all three races in 2020 and both races in 2022 before coming up 734 votes short from more than 5.5 million cast in a six months litigation-protracted 2024 decision in which incumbent Allison Riggs defeated Jefferson Griffin.
