(The Center Square) – Key findings from a Republican internal poll of North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District include no frontrunner, lack of popularity for Democrats and “low name ID” for the incumbent.
The district, along with the adjacent 3rd Congressional District, was redrawn in October; survived litigations; and is pivotal to Republicans winning 10 or 11 of the state’s 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The state has a different congressional map for the sixth time in as many elections.
The National Republican Congressional Committee’s sampling of 840 likely voters April 25-29, yielding +/- 3.37% margin of error, netted 41% each for Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout and Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis. Davis hit 48% on “never heard of or don’t know” while splitting 26% favorable and 26% unfavorable.
The Democratic Party’s image polled 54% unfavorable and 36% favorable.
The race is drawing plenty of attention from both parties and outside influence. It’s among several across the country considered pivotal to majority control of the House for the 120th Congress. The 2024 Election Day cycle produced a split of 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats.
And redrawing the district illustrates better than perhaps any other element how challenging it is for Republicans. The last time the U.S. House representative in the northeastern part of the state was won by a Republican was 1882.
Davis, according to campaign filing that closed the first quarter, went into spring with $2.8 million cash on hand to $1.4 million for the retired Army colonel. This past Wednesday was the 180-day marker from Election Day.
Differentiations because of court orders have been in each map used for four of the last five congressional elections – 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. The Legislature’s draw in 2024 was the other.
In October, stating the desire to win an additional seat for their party, the majority Republican General Assembly passed yet another new map that adjusted 10 counties east of I-95.
Beaufort, Hyde, Dare, Craven, Pamlico and Carteret counties change from the 3rd to the 1st Congressional District; Wilson, Wayne, Greene and Lenoir counties change from the 1st to the 3rd. The only district of 14 with closer than 13% difference in 2024 was a win by Davis over Buckhout by 1.7%.
Rep. Dr. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., is the third-term congressman from the 3rd Congressional District. Democrats didn’t even run an opponent against him two years ago; this year, they will.
Democrats are forecast to easily retain their seats in the 2nd, 4th and 12th districts with, respectively, Reps. Deborah Ross, Valerie Foushee and Alma Adams.
