(The Center Square) – North Carolina’s difference from states making headlines in Tuesday’s Election Day is significant enough that few if any veteran observers of state politics are willing to rush to judgments in either direction.
For sure, all say Democrats had the banner day. And all say the party retaking the White House in 2024 is subject by historical pattern to losing seats from Congress to the Legislature at the 2026 midterms. In the spotlight, Proposition 50 passed allowing California to redraw congressional districts, Zohran Mamdani shook up New York City, and Democrats won governor and attorney general races in Virginia, and governor in New Jersey.
Mitch Kokai of the John Locke Foundation cautions it is “not a great idea to try to extrapolate from results in deep-blue states such as California, New York, and New Jersey. North Carolina is a different political animal. Its electorate is distinct from those making headlines this week.”
In the Tarheel State, unaffiliated independence is the leading voting bloc and growing near 40% while Democrats and Republicans are nearly equal at just over 30%. Most agree true independence in the largest bloc of nearly 3 million resides somewhere in the range of 10% to 15%.
“A strong Democratic tide could help them maintain the 1st District seat that’s been redrawn to help Republicans,” Kokai told The Center Square. “They also could have a stronger shot in the 3rd District, where Republicans sacrificed some advantage to help boost their chances in the neighboring 1st. So, while Republicans have redrawn the congressional map to increase their advantage from 10-4 to 11-3, a very strong Democratic year could push the delegation to a 9-5 Republican advantage. That could be enough to help affect control of the U.S. House.”
And that’s also if the maps are used. Litigation is ongoing and Dec. 1 is the beginning of the candidate filing.
Prop 50 is estimated to help California’s already 43-9 Democrats in representation to the U.S. House flip five seats to make it 48-4. Republican Donald Trump was beaten in the state by Democrat Kamala Harris 58.5%-38.3%, and eight counties he won voted yes Tuesday on Prop 50.
Dr. Chris Cooper, director of the Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University, isn’t convinced of radical realignment in progress.
“’Turnout matters’ is an old saw in American politics for a reason – and we saw the reason on full display yesterday,” he told The Center Square. “Turnout among Democrats and left-leaning independents appears to be up, and the results were positive for the Democrats in virtually every locale.”
Catawba College’s Dr. Michael Bitzer, director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, said Tuesday’s results confirm the foundation for “a classic midterm election in 2026, namely a referendum on the president and his party and the issues of economics at the forefront of voters’ minds.”
“With that said,” Bitzer told The Center Square, “and the looming competitive U.S. Senate race and legislative seats, the question becomes: will the Democratic tide of 2025 have the energy to last a year and sweep into November 2026?”
Elon University’s Dr. Jason Husser, director of the Elon Poll and professor of political science and public policy, agrees with the sentiment on economic discontent.
“Last month’s Elon University Poll found that many North Carolina voters remain disappointed with the economic outcomes of the Trump presidency so far,” Husser told The Center Square.
Dr. David McLennan, director of the Meredith Poll and professor of political science at Meredith College in Raleigh, said a dramatic shift in the Legislature is unlikely given maps drawn but a pickup of seats is possible. And, like Kokai, he leaves open the chance of 10-4 Republicans in the U.S. House.
Speaking to The Center Square on the 1st Congressional District seat of Democrat Don Davis, McLennan said, “Even though this seat was redrawn as a R+5 seat, a stronger than average Democratic turnout could overcome the gerrymander.”
