(The Center Square) – Michael Whatley is 30 points clear of his nearest Republican rival and has pulled within 5% of Democratic front-runner Roy Cooper in the race to win a seat from North Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
Carolina Forward’s sampling from Jan. 5-7 released on Monday is closer between Cooper and Whatley than the last poll in September (Cooper by 7%), and the last poll by Carolina Journal in November (Cooper by 8.7%). Cooper leads the latest poll 47%-42% with 9% not sure.
Another key race surveyed was the one seat in the North Carolina Supreme Court on the ballot. Republican Sarah Stevens led incumbent Democrat Anita Earls 42%-41% with 16% unsure.
“Roy Cooper remains the frontrunner in the U.S. Senate race,” said Blair Reeves, chairman of Carolina Forward. “Trump’s popularity continues to sink, and combined with Cooper’s enduring popularity in North Carolina, that’s a tough combination for anyone to overcome.”
The election could set a U.S. Senate campaign spending record near or exceeding $1 billion. A campaign filing period is upcoming Jan. 31 for the 2025 year-end report. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Cooper’s campaign said it raised $9.5 million and Whatley’s team said it raised $5.1 million.
The poll of 1,105 likely general voters, with 3.5% margin of error, placed Whatley (36%) well ahead of Don Brown (6%) and Michele Morrow (4%) in the Republican primary.
The sampled group was split 37% unaffiliated voter registration, 32% Republican and 28% Democrats – a close representation to the state’s voting bloc.
No federal or statewide office drew more than the 14 candidates seeking the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Thom Tillis. He said last year he would not seek a third term.
Cooper, former two term governor from Raleigh, leads the Democrats’ primary that includes Jacksonville’s Daryl Farrow, Concord’s Justin Dues, Rocky Point’s Robert Colon, Wilmington’s Marcus Williams and High Point’s Orrick Quick. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Whatley, of Gastonia, leads the Republicans’ primary that includes Charlotte’s Margot Dupre, Durham’s Richard Dansie, Waxhaw’s Brown, Smithfield’s Elizabeth Temple, Cary’s Morrow and Garner’s Thomas Johnson.
Libertarian Shannon Bray of Angier awaits in the general election.
Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years.
Republicans are 5-for-5 in U.S. Senate races since losing to the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats chase back to 1998 for the last time winning a Senate seat at the midterms.
Carolina Forward bills itself as an “independent, statewide public policy think tank dedicated to advancing evidence-based solutions for North Carolina’s most pressing challenges. The organization conducts research, analysis, and polling to inform public discourse and policy development across the state.”
