(The Center Square) – U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, has increased his lead in the Arizona GOP primary, according to a new poll.
Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing that Biggs has a 30-point lead over U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Scottsdale.
Biggs has expanded his lead over Schweikert since March, when he had a 21-point advantage.
NPI CEO Mike Noble told The Center Square this week that Biggs is ahead of everyone else because he was the first to announce in January 2025.
On top of this, he also has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which is impactful in Republican primaries, Noble added.
Sixty percent of Republican primary voters are “more likely to vote for the candidate” if the person has Trump’s endorsement, Noble said.
Biggs has raised large sums of money and polls well with “core demographic groups,” he noted.
NPI’s poll showed that Biggs has a significant advantage over Schweikert among men, women, senior citizens, conservatives, Trump supporters and Hispanic Republicans.
Schweikert has not gained any traction in the polls, Noble said.
After Karrin Taylor Robson dropped out of the race in February, Noble said Biggs obtained 75% of her voters’ support while Schweikert got 25%.
Noble said Schweikert is doing well with self-identified moderates and suburban voters.
Drew Sexton, a senior adviser for Biggs’ gubernatorial campaign, told The Center Square by email that Biggs’ campaign is “very pleased to see Republicans of all backgrounds from across Arizona unite behind” the representative.
Sexton described Biggs as the “only candidate building the support and momentum needed to defeat the weak and ineffective Katie Hobbs.”
“Andy has taken his message of Restoring the American Dream to every corner of the state, earning the support and trust of the Arizona voters we need to win in November,” Sexton said.
“Our campaign is continuing to focus on Andy’s optimistic vision and its clear contrast with Katie Hobbs’ failures, from our state falling to 45th in affordability to the investigation of Hobbs’ alleged participation in a pay-to-play scheme of $4M in taxpayer funds,” the senior adviser noted.
“Arizonans will choose competence over chaos in November, and that’s why Andy Biggs will win,” he added.
But even with Biggs gaining momentum in the GOP primary, the poll showed Biggs losing to Gov. Katie Hobbs in a hypothetical general election by 4 points. This represents a 1-point improvement since February.
Michael Beyer, the communications director for Hobbs’ gubernatorial campaign, told The Center Square by email that her campaign expects “this to be a competitive race through the end.”
“Gov. Hobbs is focused on what matters to Arizonans: cutting taxes, eliminating medical debt for more than 485,000 Arizonans, and securing the border to go after criminals and get drugs off our streets,” Beyer said.
“While her opponents push the same D.C. chaos and extremism that’s hurting families in Arizona, Katie Hobbs has built a bipartisan record of lowering costs and getting things done, and that’s why she’ll win in November,” he added.
NPI’s poll factored in the No Labels candidate Hugh Lytle, who qualified for the ballot. He got 5% of the vote in the hypothetical matchup with Hobbs and Biggs.
If Schweikert were to secure the GOP gubernatorial nomination, the poll showed Hobbs beating him by 7 points.
“Biggs is getting stronger with Republicans, but that strength has not yet translated into broader general election movement,” Noble said.
Compared to February, Hobbs is sitting in a better position, according to Noble.
He said the governor has a massive “cash on hand advantage” compared to Republicans and does not have a primary opponent.
Noble also said Arizona’s generic ballot is Democrat plus one, with Republicans holding a 7.5-point registration advantage.
According to Noble, the president’s job approval rating on the economy among Arizona voters is -27 points. He noted Hobbs’ job approval on the state’s economy with Arizona voters breaks even.
Arizona voters are blaming the state’s economic woes on Trump rather than Hobbs, Noble said.
He noted the gender gap in the gubernatorial race has “never been bigger.” Despite the gender gap, the poll found Hobbs and Biggs are tied among male voters. The poll said both candidates are garnering 42%.
“Biggs should be up with males,” Noble said.
Hobbs has the advantage with females, according to Noble. The poll said Hobbs is up 40% to 32% over Biggs amongst women voters.
Among undecided voters, there are “two to one more females than males,” Noble said.
He questioned why Republicans were still having a competitive primary when Hobbs has “all the advantages right now.”
Arizona’s Republican and Democratic primary races are on July 21
The poll had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
The Center Square reached out to the campaigns of Schweikert and Lytle but did not hear back before press time.
