(The Center Square) – Several key races in Texas appear to be statistically tied or very close two weeks ahead of the May 26 runoff election, according to several polls.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton nearly statistically tied in the U.S. Senate race. The poll has Paxton leading Cornyn 48% to 45% with a margin of error of 2.8%.
When asked who was more likely to defeat Democrat James Talarico in November, 43% said Cornyn; 43% said Paxton; 14% said neither. Talarico broke all fundraising records for any U.S. Senate candidate in history. On Tuesday, former President Barack Obama campaigned for him in Texas.
According to the poll, the top issue among Republican voters is immigration and border security. Texas law enforcement, border sheriffs and south Texas ranchers have overwhelmingly endorsed Cornyn, The Center Square reported.
In the Republican Texas Attorney General runoff election, state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, 48% to 39%; 13% said they were unsure how they would vote.
In the Texas Railroad Commission runoff, RCC Chairman Jim Wright is leading his challenger, former Tarrant County GOP chair Bo French, 35% to 28%. Those in the oil and gas industry, which is regulated by the RCC, have overwhelmingly endorsed Wrigtht. Wright has prioritized regulatory reforms and water conservation. Many Republicans have called for French’s withdrawal after comments he made about women, Jews and Muslims.
In new congressional districts, two runoff elections in Houston are close: CD 9 and CD 18.
In CD 9’s Republican runoff election, failed Harris County judicial candidate and attorney Alex Mealer is leading state Rep. Briscoe Cain by roughly four points. A new UH Hobby poll has Mealer leading 50% to 41% with a margin of error of 4.9%. Mealer has never been elected to office. Cain has served in the state legislature, authored multiple pieces of legislation and is endorsed by the governor and other Republican leaders.
In CD 18’s Democratic runoff election, former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee is leading U.S. Rep. Al Green by 50% to 43% with a margin of error of 3.46%.
Two key congressional border races are close.
In CD 15, incumbent U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz is leading her Democratic challenger, Latin singer Bobby Pulido, who’s never been elected to office. His campaign has been plagued by scandals, including his longtime association with a convicted child sex offender, The Center Square reported. According to a House Majority PAC poll, De La Cruz is leading Pulido 41% to 38%.
In CD 34, a National Republican Congressional Committee poll has Republican Eric Flores in a tight race with incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. The poll has him leading 41% to 40%, but with a margin of error of 3.5% the race is considered a toss-up.
In previous elections both districts were considered Democratic strongholds. Not anymore.
In 2024, the majority of south Texas counties flipped Republican and voted for President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
Since 2018, when Democrats had a solid 40% Hispanic advantage, the party has lost Hispanic support. By 2020, Democrats held a 27% Hispanic advantage, which dropped to 21% in the 2022, 9% in 2024 and 2% in 2026, according to polling data.
An Economist/YouGov Poll shows Democrats having a 2% advantage among Hispanic voters on the generic ballot. “They are in the worst position they’ve been in since 2018,” NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez told The Center Square. “This is significant because under President Donald Trump, Texas 34, which has one of the highest percentages of Hispanic voters, shifted the most to the right since 2016. But Republicans have not been able to capitalize” until Flores.
In CD 34, Trump received 30% of the Hispanic vote in 2016, 42% in 2020 and 52% in 2024.
Texas Hispanics are voting Republican because of their support for border security and deportation, law enforcement, the energy industry and wanting jobs and a strong economy, The Center Square reported. A large number of federal immigration enforcement officers are Hispanic. Nearly all law enforcement groups and the Border Patrol union have endorsed Cornyn, De La Cruz and Flores.
Republican gains in south Texas are in large part a result of grassroots efforts led by ProjectRedTx. Since 2018, it’s recruited more than 500 candidates at the local level and won more than 150 races. In the last few years, many Democrats have also flipped Republican, The Center Square reported.
“These areas are traditionally Democrat with Republicans beginning to make inroads,” ProjectRedTx’ director Wayne Hamilton told The Center Square. “The Democrats have gone so far to the left that they are driving South Texans to the Republican Party.”
He points to Democrats’ “radical gender ideology, even referring to South Texans as Latinx,” and pushing the New Green Deal, which “would eliminate thousands of the good paying energy jobs that have revolutionized South Texas” as key factors.
“South Texas is getting more purple every day,” he said. “In a few more election cycles, it will be Red, and all the left-wing rhetoric by the Democrats will continue to push it that way.”
